The beige area is in a moderate drought and the yellow area is abnormally dry (Source: U.S. Drought Monitor)
The recent rains somewhat eased but did not eliminate New Jersey's drought, according to the U.S. Drought Monitor.
Much of Monmouth County is still abnormally dry or in a moderate drought, but Ocean County is no longer is abnormally dry, according to Thursday's drought update.
Much of central and northeastern New Jersey remains under a water supply drought watch, with state officials urging residents to conserve water.
The drought watch area includes most of Monmouth County and about half of Ocean County.
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Here are some facts about the ongoing drought and the weather outlook:
1. Nearly 18 percent of the state is in a moderate drought, down from about 43 percent a week ago, according to the drought monitor. About 36 percent of the state is at least abnormally dry, down from about 90 percent. An estimated 3.9 million people are in drought areas.
2. In 180 days through Tuesday, much of central and northern New Jersey still had precipitation deficits, according to the Middle Atlantic River Forecast Center. Monmouth County had a 4.3-inch deficit, but Ocean County had only a 1.3-inch shortfall.
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3. The 4-billion-gallon Manasquan Reservoir in Howell is 68.43 percent full as of Thursday, up from 65.83 percent a week ago, according to the New Jersey Water Supply Authority. The approximately 2.2-billion-gallon Swimming River Reservoir is 86 percent full and the approximately 1-billion-gallon Glendola Reservoir is 87 percent full, both norms for this time of year, according to Richard G. Barnes, spokesman for New Jersey American Water. The approximately 1-billion-gallon Brick Reservoir is full, according to James F. Lacey, executive director of the Brick Township Municipal Utilities Authority.
Water levels in 13 northeastern New Jersey reservoirs have increased overall lately, but they're still below the 1962 to 2010 average, according to the N.J. Department of Environmental Protection. The reservoirs, which can hold up to 76.2 billion gallons, were slightly less than 65 percent full on Oct. 5.
4. It may be warmer than normal in New Jersey from Oct. 31 to 21, according to Climate Prediction Center outlooks posted on Wednesday. It may also be drier than normal in most of the state from Oct. 13 to 17.
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5. Only a quarter-inch to a half-inch of precipitation is forecast in the next week, according to a Weather Prediction Center forecast map. The forecast for Freehold calls for little rain through Wednesday, with showers likely on Friday afternoon and Friday night and thunderstorms possible, according to the National Weather Service.
6. David A. Robinson, the New Jersey state climatologist, said in an email that "I don't think we will see any change in the Drought Monitor next week. Our only shot at precipitation in the next week is (Friday) afternoon and evening." The current weather service forecast suggests that most areas will receive less than a quarter-inch of rain, but there may be enough instability to generate some thunderstorms, which would possible lead to localized heavier amounts of rain, he said.
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7. Robinson said "this return to a dry pattern, one that the 8-14 day outlook suggests may continue beyond next week, is not enough to warrant expansion of (the abnormally dry area) back into the southern half of NJ next week. Nor is it dry enough to suggest a change (in drought status to severe) in the area currently (in a moderate drought). Last week's rain staved off that potential change for at least another week, and given the gradual fall cooling (though it isn't going to happen quickly, at least as suggested by the outlook for the next two weeks) drying will not be as quick or pronounced compared to the last few months."
